Pep Guardiola and Man City’s need to evolve
Pep Guardiola has done a marvellous job since he became manager of Manchester City in 2016.
City had already climbed into the winners’ circle by the time Guardiola arrived at the Etihad having won the English Premier League under Roberto Mancini in 2012 and Manuel Pellegrini in 2014.
However, City were still prone to mystifying inconsistencies as shown by the fact Mancini and Pellegrini both eventually left under a cloud.
In his nearly four years at the club, Guardiola has solidified a winning culture at City and turned them into relentless winners.
It is a different mind-set than before.
The standards demanded are incredibly high, the players expect to win and there is little let-up.
After winning the Carabao Cup two weekends ago, for example, Guardiola was already focused on the next trophy.
“Think tomorrow,” he said.
“I learnt in the big clubs I was before when they win a trophy they go and take a shower and think of the next.”
It is the ethos of all great champion clubs, and Guardiola’s transformation of City has extended even beyond the first team.
From City’s academy to its worldwide sister clubs in the City Football Group, the football played is Guardiola’s style and the players produced at grassroots level are his type, Phil Foden being an example.
However, even with all the wonderful achievements, City find themselves in a bit a lull, if not on the verge of a full-blown transition period with players such as Sergio Aguero, David Silva and Fernandinho beginning to age.
On the field City are experiencing the first bump under Guardiola as demonstrated again in Sunday’s 2–0 loss to rivals Manchester United at Old Trafford.
City haven’t had a bad season but the league title is gone and they feel more beatable than at any point under Guardiola.
It is the nature of football.
It goes in cycles and you need to keep evolving to stay at the top.
Fortunately, there are no signs Guardiola is heading towards the same burnout he suffered at Barcelona where, according to Guillem Balague’s biography of Guardiola, he was taking tablets to help him sleep towards the end of him time at the Nou Camp, or at Bayern Munich where he seemed crushed by their UEFA Champions League semi-final defeats in 2014 and 2015 before deciding to leave in 2016.
Guardiola still looks vibrant and up for the challenge at City.
His body language was positive during Sunday’s loss to United and his words have been resilient since news of Man City’s two-year Champions League ban broke in February.
Guardiola will stay at Man City for the foreseeable future, but there will have to be some tweaks to the system to keep the team a dominant force in England and Europe.
A lack of penetration and goals
In my opinion City played excellently in the opening 30 minutes against Manchester United. They moved the ball well and were great to watch.
Technically, they were the vastly superior side and they passed the ball around United at will.
Unfortunately, when things came to the final third City were predictable and never felt dangerous.
This is the problem facing City.
Much has been made about their defence which, to be fair, is conceding at a higher rate than last season — City have conceded 31 goals in 28 league matches which is already more than in either of their previous two title-winning campaigns (27 and 23).
However, in my opinion, their inability to score goals when it matters is the biggest problem facing Guardiola’s side.
It is a chicken and egg situation — the offence hurts the defence and vice-versa.
As the season has progressed it has increasingly felt as though Sergio Aguero is the only City player capable of scoring in big moments. The only other attacker in goalscoring form is Gabriel Jesus but he plays when he replaces Aguero in the line-up.
The previously on-fire Raheem Sterling hasn’t scored a league goal in 2020 and no one in City’s midfield offers any real goal threat right now.
The result of this overreliance on Aguero has made City both unreliable and unpredictable in terms of their offensive production.
For some moments City are scintillating as they were for periods in the Carabao Cup final against Aston Villa. However, some of the time City either miss chances or only look threatening when the ball reaches Aguero.
Both scenarios played out against United where City were toothless in the first half and then failed to find the right final ball in the second. The one time City had the ball in the net was again through Aguero, but his second half strike was offside.
‘City, we have a problem’
“We played good,” Guardiola said after the 2–0 loss to United.
“We miss a little bit, especially in the first half, when we arrived in positions to be a little bit more aggressive.”
Guardiola is right.
City played good — they pretty much always do, and they pretty much dominate every game they play.
Once again City lead the English Premier League in all passing and possession stats.
However, their inability to take advantage of their possession and ball dominance is real. No team, for example, is missing more clear chances in the league than City this season.
City’s failure to capitalise on their early superiority at Old Trafford wasn’t an isolated case in 2020.
The same happened last month at Tottenham when City thoroughly dominated proceedings but wasted several chances until Spurs scored. The 2–2 draw at home with Crystal Palace in January is also another example of a game City would have won if they had been better in the final third.
As pointed out, this profligacy just puts too much strain on a defence that is already stretched with Aymeric Laporte out due to injury and John Stones struggling for form. The offence is not doing a good job of complimenting a defence that hasn’t been as terrible as it has been made out to be.
City, for example, are allowing the least number shots at their goals per game this season.
The problem is that in important games wasted chances are severely punished because the quality on the field is simply better — Bruno Fernandes’ magic assist to Martial on Sunday being an example.
City’s season results bear this out.
City have scored 68 goals which is the most of any team in the league this season. But, a deeper look at their performances in big games paints a different picture.
After yesterday’s game at Old Trafford, City have now played 12 games against teams currently in the English Premier League’s top eight — Liverpool, Leicester City, Chelsea, Man United, Wolves, Sheffield United and Tottenham.
City have lost six of those games, winning just five and drawing one.
They have scored only 15 goals in those 12 games and have conceded 18.
It means City are averaging 3.3 goals in games against the league’s lower teams but 1.25 goals against the top teams. That return is not enough especially when you consider that, with the exception of the 3–1 loss to Liverpool, City have dominated play in each one of those aforementioned 12 matches.
What is the solution?
Football is about evolving and retooling.
Guardiola and City need to do that.
Of course, City have been unlucky with injuries this season. Offensively, they have sorely missed Leroy Sane who tore his ACL in the Community Shield last August and hasn’t kicked a ball since.
He is a huge miss. Last season the 23-year-old started only 21 league games and didn’t even log 2000 league minutes, but he was devastating whenever he stepped on the field.
Among players that played in at least half of their team’s minutes in 2018/19, Sane was second in the league in non-penalty goals and assists per 90 minutes (0.96) behind his City teammate Aguero (0.98).
Injuries and bad luck aside, however, City need to add variance to their offence and need to get another player, apart from Aguero, that can break down opponents one-on-one and score goals.
Riyad Mahrez is that guy; he is a skilful player that always creates danger when he plays, but Guardiola doesn’t seem to trust him.
If that is case then City have to look to the transfer market because their offence has to get faster, more varied and more aggressive in the final third.
Right now it has become obvious what City will do on offence. If Foden or Bernardo Silva, for example, are playing on the right of City’s front three, more often than not they will cut infield and their fullbacks don’t overlap enough.
Good teams are beginning to close City’s passing lanes through the middle of the field and are forcing them to beat them from wide.
This used to be a risky proposition with Sane’s searing pace on the outside in 1 v 1 situations. But lately, and partly because of Sterling’s dip in confidence, teams are not being punished for sometimes leaving their fullbacks without much support against City’s wide attackers.
The flip side, of course, is that opposing teams are now also able to commit more players towards springing counterattacks on City, which is what United did on Sunday.
Brandon Williams was sometimes left to deal with Foden on his own while Aaron Wan-Bissaka often did the same with Sterling on the opposite flank if Fred wasn’t there to help.
United played with three centrebacks and two screening central midfielders because they were more concerned with stopping City’s quick link-up play through the centre and in the pockets of space between their defence and midfield.
With these spaces closed off or congested, teams then leave two and sometimes three players in advanced positions to catch City on the counter if City’s attacks break down (United had Anthony Martial, Daniel James and, at times, even Fernandes in advance of City’s ball carrier on Sunday).
This tactic is working more and more as teams funnel City’s attacks infield and then break out with direct balls behind City’s fullbacks. United did this on a couple of occasions with James being the recipient.
City’s problems are exacerbated when Kevin De Bruyne does not play (as was the case against United) because there is no one threatening to shoot from long range which, if nothing else, gives defenders something different to think about in terms of whether to close down De Bruyne a bit higher to stop him from shooting, which in turn can leave the defence open to slide-rule passes in behind them.
It is a challenge Guardiola has to solve, either through the transfer market or by adding more variety and directness to City’s attack.
It is not a train smash. City have won the Carabao Cup and are still in the FA Cup and Champions League. They still have the world’s most successful coach and, if anyone can figure things out, it is Pep Guardiola.
It is clear, though: City need to evolve because their rivals in the elite ranks have begun to figure them out.
